Articles

The forgotten primary: 11 Democrats vie for Florida's bluest seat without outside help

Miami Herald / Alex Daugherty / September 20, 2021

Nine of the 11 Democrats vying for a once-in-a-generation opportunity to represent the state's bluest district in Congress had a chance to face one another, virtually, in a recent candidate forum hosted by the left-leaning advocacy group Florida Rising.

The three-hour, 45-minute conference call yielded zero political attacks.

There's less than two months until Democrats will select their next member of Congress in Florida's 20th Congressional District, a majority Black seat that includes Miramar, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. But the country's third special U.S. House election this year in a deep blue district isn't playing out in the same way as battles for open seats in New Orleans and Cleveland. Those seats, particularly the Ohio election, turned into fights between the Democratic Party's progressive and establishment wings, with the establishment side winning both races.

In South Florida, a Hillary Clinton tweet seems unlikely. A visit from progressive U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or South Carolina kingmaker and U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn doesn't appear to be happening before early voting begins on Oct. 23. The 11 candidates are largely on their own.

"It's not to disqualify anyone but when you have two county commissioners, two state representatives and a state senator there's no one person that's kind of a standout," said Dwight Bullard, a senior adviser for Florida Rising who hosted the candidate forum. "I think it gives folks an honest assessment of veteran elected officials and new blood."

Florida's longest-serving member of Congress, Rep. Alcee Hastings, died in Aprilafter winning reelection for a 15th term in 2020.

To date, national interest in the field of candidates is extremely limited. Only three national groups, Brand New Congress, 314 Action Fund and Elect Democratic Women, have made endorsements. Other groups like the Congressional Black Caucus and Sunrise Movement, a youth-led climate change movement that generally supports progressives, have not weighed in.

The field includes five sitting politicians: state Sen. Perry Thurston, state Rep. Bobby DuBose, state Rep. Omari Hardy, Broward County Commissioner Dale V.C. Holness and Broward County Commissioner Barbara Sharief. All will leave their seats after qualifying to run for Congress.

Former state representative and 2019 West Palm Beach mayoral candidate Priscilla Taylor; Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, a healthcare executive from Hollywood who is spending $2.2 million of her own money on the campaign after running against Hastings in 2020; Elvin Dowling, a public speaker and author from Broward County; Phil Jackson, a retired Navy officer from Palm Beach County; Emmanuel Morel, a former congressional candidate and retired federal labor investigator from Palm Beach County; and Dr. Imran Uddin Siddiqui, an internist from Broward County, also qualified for the Democratic primary.

With so many candidates in the field, it's nearly impossible for Democratic groups who back women, progressives or centrist candidates to get involved without alienating another candidate who shares their views. And none of the candidates, or even a group of two or three candidates, are considered front-runners.

"What's happening is there's multiple people from multiple sects," said former Democratic state Sen. Oscar Braynon. "There's two people doing the progressive thing, there's several moderates, even regionally there's multiple people from south Broward, central Broward, Palm Beach."

Braynon said the Democratic primary, where limited public polling has shown that the most popular candidate is "undecided," is turning into "a personal-type race."

"It's 11 people. There's a chance that you know someone personally," Braynon said. "Maybe one or two is your elected official. That'll probably be the edge, who do you know?"

Whoever wins the seat will be one of Florida's most important voices for the Black community inside and outside the district. Hastings was a constant presence at political rallies, protests and Souls to the Polls events every year, despite facing minimal opposition for his own seat. He was an important gatekeeper for statewide candidates seeking to make inroads with Black voters, and frequently advised non-Black Democrats how to conduct voter outreach in communities like West Palm Beach.

The winner of the Nov. 2 primary will advance to the general election on Jan. 11, 2022, when the Democrat will be the overwhelming favorite over the Republican nominee and four other candidates. The new incumbent will face voters again less than a year later, with another primary scheduled for August 2022 and a general election in November.

A lack of local excitement

Outside the candidates themselves, even local groups who are more likely to endorse ahead of the Democratic primary are finding it harder to get volunteers and donors interested in the race.

Many volunteers are wary of door-knocking in a non-election year with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. And Democratic donors are hesitant to get behind a safe-seat candidate when no one is confident of the winner. Holness has raised the most money from donors so far, with just over $300,000. Cherfilus-McCormick, Sharief and Thurston have all loaned their campaigns money. And no candidate has raised significant money from small-dollar donations, often a sign of robust online support, with DuBose's $17,500 leading the way.

Millie Raphael, a Democratic strategist and CEO of the political consulting firm Progress for Florida, said she attributed the lack of interest in the Florida 20 race to several factors, including fatigue from grassroots volunteers. But she emphasized that some Florida Democrats and Broward activists are frustrated that a handful of candidates in the crowded race decided to push forward with the special election rather than stay in their current seats.

Voters in the largely Black communities of Central Broward, for example, will be without any representation in Tallahassee when the 2022 session begins because Thurston represents the area in the Florida Senate and DuBose represents the area in the Florida House. Gov. Ron DeSantis has not announced elections to replace them, giving Republicans more power in the Legislature.

"It has led to an undercurrent of resentment with this particular seat," said Raphael, who lives in the district but is not working with any of the candidates. "We can't get that back. They may have wanted to consider that."

Raphael said that resentment has led to a lack of involvement from potential campaign volunteers when Democrats are attempting to build up their bench without losing seats in the Legislature or Broward County Commission. DeSantis will also get to pick replacements for Holness and Sharief on the county commission, which is currently represented by seven Democrats.

Bullard said his organization is "frustrated" with the state and local-level vacancies created by the special election, saying it "creates a real political black hole in Broward and Palm Beach counties."

It's possible DeSantis could put Republicans on the dais or he could appoint Democrats who might have a better chance of winning reelection, like he did with Broward Sheriff Gregory Tony after removing former Sheriff Scott Israel from office over his handling of the Parkland school shooting. Tony, a Democrat, won reelection in 2020 after getting appointed by DeSantis.

A static field

Since the candidates officially qualified for the ballot in August, none of the candidates has directly attacked another. The two youngest candidates, Cherfilus-McCormick and Hardy, are attempting to run on more left-leaning platforms with Cherfilus-McCormick backing a universal basic income and Hardy openly comparing himself to Ocasio-Cortez, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America.

The only major shakeup in recent weeks had nothing to do with the campaign itself. Holness' daughter, Damara Holness, was charged in August with stealing $300,000 from the Paycheck Protection Program, a federal program to help small businesses affected by the pandemic. Holness, who was endorsed by Hastings' son shortly after his death, told the Miami Herald he was estranged from his daughter.

Chris Smith, a former state senator and lobbyist who lives in the district, said most of the outside help is coming from local unions with most big business groups choosing to sit out of the race. He also said some members of the Congressional Black Caucus are helping certain candidates out from behind the scenes but that he does not anticipate a major endorsement or campaign event.

"Jim Clyburn has a national name, but I doubt he gets involved," Smith said of the South Carolina congressman, whose endorsement of Joe Biden before the state's primary was seen as a pivotal moment in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary. "Everybody's got a connection, but Clyburn's really the only person I could say could go in and sway something."

And Bullard said policy won't drive voter decisions in a primary he estimated will see less than 20% turnout and total voter participation closer to a municipal election than a federal election. The biggest factors, he said, are personal connections to the candidates themselves and if a voter thinks new blood or experience is more important.

He compared the Florida 20 election to the 2010 race for the deep blue seat just to the south in what is now Florida's 24th Congressional District. Voters there faced a nine-way Democratic primary after incumbent Kendrick Meek retired to run for U.S. Senate, a race that was ultimately won by U.S. Rep. Frederica Wilson, who has faced minimal opposition since.

"It gives you a chance to say do you want to support someone who's been there and served in multiple offices or elect somebody who is a newer, fresher candidate," Bullard said. "In Congressional District 24 they chose the veteran elected official in Congresswoman Wilson, and she's been reelected subsequently."

Democratic state Sen. Shevrin Jones said donors and outside groups are aware that whoever wins the massive primary likely has the seat for as long as they want it, which means holding fire in the next two months to build a better relationship with a future officeholder.

"When you start campaigning against someone eventually you're going to have to work with the individual, whoever prevails in that special election," said Jones, whose district overlaps partially with the congressional seat. "I think you're going to see quite a few organizations stay out of this race."